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What is Backcasting?
Backcasting is a method used in planning. It begins with outlining a desired goal or object. Next, identify the programs and policies needed to connect that desired future back to the present.
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How does Backcasting Work?
John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo outlined the primary elements of the backcasting method.
The essential question of the technique asks: If we hope to reach a specific goal, what steps must we take to get there?
The method of forecasting involves a prediction of the future based on analyzing the current trends.
Backcasting, however, discusses the future by envisioning the desired future conditions and then defining the actions to get to those conditions not merely continuing with the steps of a current method inferring into the future.
In data analysis and statistics, backcasting is opposite forecasting:
- Forecasting uses prediction of unknown dependent variable values based on known independent variable values.
- Backcasting uses the prediction of unknown independent variable values that might have existed to justify known dependent variable values.
Backcasting helps to specify the targets that should be set for a particular direction of technology development.
