How Does the Business Cycle Affect Trade Balances?

In the short run, whether an economy is in a recession or on the upswing can affect trade imbalances. A recession tends to make a trade deficit smaller, or a trade surplus larger, while a period of strong economic growth tends to make a trade deficit larger, or a trade surplus smaller.

When the trade deficit rises, it necessarily means a greater net inflow of foreign financial capital. The national saving and investment identity teaches that the rest of the economy can absorb this inflow of foreign financial capital in several different ways. For example, reduced private savings could offset the additional inflow of financial capital from abroad, leaving domestic investment and public saving unchanged. Alternatively, the inflow of foreign financial capital could result in higher domestic investment, leaving private and public saving unchanged. Yet another possibility is that greater government borrowing could absorb the inflow of foreign financial capital, leaving domestic saving and investment unchanged. The national saving and investment identity does not specify which of these scenarios, alone or in combination, will occur—only that one of them must occur.

Related Topics

• Trade Balance: Surplus and Deficit
• Mercantilism
• J Curve
• National Trade Data Bank
• Capital Account (Economics)
• Merchandise Trade Balance
• Current Account 
• Income Payments
• Unilateral Transfer
• Is it better to have a trade surplus or a trade deficit? 
• Export of Goods and Services and Percentage of GDP
• Heckscher-Ohlin Model 
• Linder Hypothesis
• The Balance of Trade as a Balance of Payments
• National Savings and Investment Identity
• Circular Flow of Money
• Financial Capital
• Supply and Demand Sides for Financial Capital? 
• Flow of Capital
• Domestic Saving and Investment Determine the Trade Balance
• National Savings Identity and Trade Deficits
• How the Business Cycle Affects Trade Balances
• Trade Balance or Trade Surplus
• Level of Trade
• Comparative Advantage
• Absolute Advantage
• Specialization and Gain from Trade
• Absolute Advantage in All Goods
• Production Possibilities Frontier and Comparative Advantage
• Comparative Advantage and Mutually Beneficial Trade
• Gain from Trade
• Opportunity Costs and International Trade
• Intra-Industry Trade
• Splitting Up the Value Chain
• How Economies of Scale Lead to Trading Advantages
• Protectionism
• Closed Economy
• Tariffs 
• Double Column Tariff
• Import Quotas
• Double Column Tariff
• Infant Industry Theory
• National Interest Argument
• Race to the Bottom
• Anti-Dumping Laws
• Dumping
• Trade War
• Race to the Bottom
• Non-Tariff Barriers
• Effects of Trade Barriers
• Who Is Benefited and Who is Harmed by Protectionism?
• Infant Industry Theory for Restricting Imports
• What is the Anti-Dumping Argument for Restricting Imports?

• Anti-Dumping Laws
• Dumping

• What is the Environmental Protection Argument for Restricting Imports?
• Race to the Bottom
• Unsafe Consumer Products Argument for Restricting Imports?
• National Interest Argument for Restricting Imports
• What is the WTO?
• What is the GATT?
• What are Free Trade Agreements?
• North American Free Trade Agreement
• Central European Free Trade Agreement
• General Agreement on Free Tariff and Trade (GATT)
• Common Market
• Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
• Central American Common Market
• Caribbean Community and Common Market
• What are Economic Unions?
• WTO
• International Monetary Fund
• World Economic Forum
• Inter-American Development Bank
• Davos World Economic Forum 
• Chamber of Commerce
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium