How do the Effects of Fiscal Policy Lag? 

The government can change monetary policy several times each year, but it takes much longer to enact fiscal policy. Imagine that the economy starts to slow down. It often takes some months before the economic statistics signal clearly that a downturn has started, and a few months more to confirm that it is truly a recession and not just a one- or two-month blip. 

What is Recognition Lag?

Economists often call the time it takes to determine that a recession has occurred the recognition lag. After this lag, policymakers become aware of the problem and propose fiscal policy bills. The bills go into various congressional committees for hearings, negotiations, votes, and then, if passed, eventually for the president’s signature. Many fiscal policy bills about spending or taxes propose changes that would start in the next budget year or would be phased in gradually over time. 

What is Legislative Lag?

Economists often refer to the time it takes to pass a bill as the legislative lag. Finally, once the government passes the bill it takes some time to disperse the funds to the appropriate agencies to implement the programs. Economists call the time it takes to start the projects the implementation lag.

Moreover, the exact level of fiscal policy that the government should implement is never completely clear. Should it increase the budget deficit by 0.5% of GDP? By 1% of GDP? By 2% of GDP? In an AD/AS diagram, it is straightforward to sketch an aggregate demand curve shifting to the potential GDP level of output. In the real world, we only know roughly, not precisely, the actual level of potential output, and exactly how a spending cut or tax increase will affect aggregate demand is always somewhat controversial. Also unknown is the state of the economy at any point in time. During the early days of the Obama administration, for example, no one knew the true extent of the economy's deficit. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the rapid collapse of the banking system and automotive sector made it difficult to assess how quickly the economy was collapsing.

Thus, it can take many months or even more than a year to begin an expansionary fiscal policy after a recession has started—and even then, uncertainty will remain over exactly how much to expand or contract taxes and spending. When politicians attempt to use countercyclical fiscal policy to fight recession or inflation, they run the risk of responding to the macroeconomic situation of two or three years ago, in a way that may be exactly wrong for the economy at that time. George P. Schultz, a professor of economics, former Secretary of the Treasury, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget, once wrote: “While the economist is accustomed to the concept of lags, the politician likes instant results. The tension comes because, as I have seen on many occasions, the economist’s lag is the politician’s nightmare.”

Related Topics

• What is Government Spending?
• Autonomous Spending
• Autonomous Consumption
• Fiscal Policy
• Expansionary Fiscal Policy
• Contractionary Fiscal Policy
• Progressive vs Regressive Tax
• Marginal Tax Rates
• Proportional Tax
• Trickle Down Theory
• Discretionary Fiscal Policy
• Automatic Stabilizers
• Effects of Discretionary Policy (Interest Rates & Lags)
• Crowding Out Effect 
• National Debt
• Government Borrowing
• Golden Rule
• Ricardian Equivalence
• Balanced Budget - Deficit and Surplus
• National Debt
• Standardized Employment Budget
• Deficit Hawk
• Austerity
• Twin Deficits
• Fiscal Policy and the Aggregate Supply and Demand Curve
• Stabilization Policy
• Robin Hood Effect
• Ricardo Barro Effect
• Automatic Stabilizers
• Standardized Employment Budget
• How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? 
• Crowding Out
• Types of Lag in Fiscal Policy
• Temporary and Permanent Fiscal Policy
• Limitations of Fiscal Policy?
• How Politics Affects Discretionary Fiscal Policy
• Government Borrowing
• National Savings and Investment Identity
• Debtor Nation
• Fiscal Policy Affects Trade Balances
• Twin Deficits
• Exchange Rates Affect Budget and Trade Deficits
• What are the risks of chronic large deficits in the United States?
• How Fiscal Policy Can Affect Trade Imbalances
• Government Borrowing Affect Private Savings
• Ricardian Equivalence
• Fiscal Policy Affects Investment and Economic Growth
• Crowding Out of Physical Capital Investment?
• How Does Government Borrowing Affect Interest Rates in Financial Markets?
• Government Investment in Physical Capital
• Public Investment in Human Capital
• Fiscal Policy Can Affect Technology Development

• Economic Cycle or Business Cycle
• Business Cycle Indicator
• Peak and Trough
• Recession and Depression
• Hard Landing vs Soft Landing
• Economic Bubble
• Boom and Bust Cycle
• Great Depression
• Baby Boomer Age Wave Theory

• Skyscrapper Effect (Economics)
• V-Shaped Recovery
• W-Shaped Recovery
• U-Shaped Recovery
• Kondratieff Wave Cycle
• Contagion
• Feedback Rule Policy
• American Customer Satisfaction Index
• CNN Effect
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Business Starts Index
• American Recover and Reinvestment Act
• Abenomics
• Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
• Commodity Credit Corporation
• Humphrey Hawkins Act

• Real Economic Growth Rate
• Fox-Trot Economy

• Stagnation
• Neoclassical Growth Theory
• Exogenous Growth Theory
• Endogenous Growth Theory
• New Growth Theory - Explained
• Classical Growth Theory - Explained
• Real Economic Growth Rate - Explained
• Plutonomy